Tuesday Takeaway

Weekly Market Commentary – April 20, 2016

Posted on April 20, 2016

“…an upward bias in the previously published GDP growth series of, on average, 2.6 percentage points per year since the start of Deng Xiaoping’s so-called “reform era” that began in 1978, this percentage has not been constant over time. In fact, our alternative series indicates much larger volatility in the year-on-year estimates (sometimes even showing faster growth rates than the official estimates), suggesting that the impacts of external and internal shocks on the Chinese economy are much more pronounced than the official statistics convey.”

In other words, China’s growth may not be as steadfast and unwavering as the country’s government would have us believe. TCB estimated China’s GDP grew by 3.7 percent during 2015, which was significantly lower than the Chinese government’s 6.9 percent growth estimate. In fact, TCB expects the Chinese economy to grow by 3.7 percent in 2016, too. It’s not 6.5 percent, but it’s solid growth. table-4-20

What Do Economists Think?

As they’ve traveled across the country, U.S. Presidential candidates have made a variety of economic proposals and promises. National Public Radio’s Planet Money asked 22 economists from across the political spectrum for their two cents on the matter. Survey participants were given three options: good, debatable, or bad. Here are their opinions: 1. End the “carried interest” tax break, which benefits hedge fund managers and private equity executives.  * Good: 20 * Debatable: 2 * Bad: 0 2. Lower the corporate tax rate to 25 percent. * Good: 10 * Debatable: 10 * Bad: 2 3. Create a “National Infrastructure Bank” seeded with public money to help finance infrastructure projects. * Good: 10 * Debatable: 8 * Bad: 4 4. Make tuition free at public colleges and universities. * Good: 1 * Debatable: 1 * Bad: 20 5. Make tuition free at community colleges for students who contribute earnings from working 10 hours a week. * Good: 5 * Debatable: 9 * Bad: 8 6. Impose a “spectator tax.” Stock trades will be taxed at 0.5 percent and bonds at 0.1 percent. * Good: 4 * Debatable: 6 * Bad: 12 7. Raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. * Good: 2 * Debatable: 4 * Bad: 16 8. Remove single taxpayers who earn less than $25,000, and married taxpayers (and those filing jointly) who earn less than $50,000 – approximately over 50 percent – from the tax rolls. * Good: 2 * Debatable: 9 * Bad: 11 9. Everyone pays the same 10 percent tax rate. It retains some version of the earned income tax credit and deductions for lower-income families. * Good: 1 * Debatable: 0 * Bad: 21 10. Expel immigrants who are in the United States illegally. * Good: 0 * Debatable: 0 * Bad: 22 We’ll find out what the American people think later this year! reflections-4-20]]>

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